You have a new burglar alarm installed at home. It is fairly reliable at detecting a burglary, but also responds on occasion to minor earthquakes. (This example is due to Judea Pearl, a resident of Los Angeles—hence the acute interest in earthquakes.) You also have two neighbors, John and Mary, who have promised to call you at work when they hear the alarm. John nearly always calls when he hears the alarm, but sometimes confuses the telephone ringing with the alarm and calls then, too. Mary, on the other hand, likes rather loud music and often misses the alarm altogether. Given the evidence of who has or has not called, we would like to estimate the probability of a burglary.
Questions
Question
Find the probability of Burglary given that both mary and john call?
Solution Speed
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Information
General Instructions
Instructions for using interface
You have been presented a fully completed Bayesian Network graph constructed for the given domain statement
Your task is to find the probabilities in the given scenarios.
You can access the CPT tables of the nodes by clickin on the nodes
Click on the "Check" button to verify your answers.
Notice that there are mulitple questions for each domiain
So missing values or incorrect answers for any of them will lead to invalid answers
Hints
These hints allow you to infer from Bayesian Network
Try to use the total probabilities
Learn or analyse how you can write total probability in terms of product of probabilites of each node.
What is the relation between node probability and its parents