You have a new burglar alarm installed at home. It is fairly reliable at detecting a burglary, but also responds on occasion to minor earthquakes. (This example is due to Judea Pearl, a resident of Los Angeles—hence the acute interest in earthquakes.) You also have two neighbors, John and Mary, who have promised to call you at work when they hear the alarm. John nearly always calls when he hears the alarm, but sometimes confuses the telephone ringing with the alarm and calls then, too. Mary, on the other hand, likes rather loud music and often misses the alarm altogether. Given the evidence of who has or has not called, we would like to estimate the probability of a burglary.
Components
Burglary
Earthquake
Alarm
Johncalls
Marycalls
India
Olympics
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Information
General Instructions
Instructions for using interface
Click on components on the left side to add them to the circuit board
Drag and drop components to move them around, connect them using lines by dragging your cursor from one endpoint to another.
You can delete components by right clicking on them and selecting the delete option.
Click on the "Submit" button to submit the circuit once you think you have built the required circuit.
Once you are done constructing correct graph, there are some missing entries in the CPT tables for some of the nodes (they are colored in yellow)
Tapping on notes you can see their CPT table being displayed towards right
Upon filling the missing values you can check your answer by clicking on "Check" button which is beneath table
Hints
These hints allow you to construct a valid Bayesian Network
Alarm setsoff when there is a burglary or ocassionally when there is a earthquake.
John, Mary calling depends on whether the alarm is ringing
Are you getting any additional information about John/Mary calling if you know the reason why alarm is ringing?
Not really, as John/ Mary give least attention to reason why alarm is ringing.
You can ignore listening to music and telephone ringing, we can embed their probabilities in the Mary/John calling itself.